2016 Electorate Most Diverse in History

The electorate in 2016 will be the most racially and ethnically diverse in U.S. history, according to the most recent report from the Pew Research Center. Nearly one in three eligible voters (31%) will be Hispanic, African-American, Asian or another racial or ethnic minority, up from 29% when President Obama last won the White House in 2012. And the demographic shifts are expected to continue. While the 156 million eligible non-Hispanic white voters still outnumber the 70 million eligible minority voters, the non-Hispanic white voter growth is slower and will continue to lose electorate share. Already the group dropped from 71% of the electorate in 2012 to 69% in 2016. In fact two-thirds of the net growth in the U.S. electorate has come from racial and ethnic minorities, up 7.5 million eligible voters since 2012, compared to the addition of just 3.2 million non-Hispanic white voters. Non-Hispanic whites are losing ground because of the higher mean age of the group, leading to a higher death rate and a smaller percentage of new young voters who turned 18 since 2012. Immigrants, though a contentious issue in the current presidential race, are not a key growth driver for any group but Asians. Some 60% of new Asian voters came via naturalization, compared with just 26% of new Hispanic voters since 2012. However, turnout rates may reduce the initial impact of these demographic shifts, adds Pew Research. In 2012, 64% of non-Hispanic white and 67% of black eligible voters actually cast ballots, compared with just 48% of Hispanic and 47% of Asians. For more data, see http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/

AOL E-Mails Are Surprise Political Gold Mine

Political fundraisers are mining donor gold from veins of AOL e-mail addresses, reveals a recent USA Today report. A January study by digital marketing firm Fluent found that while only 4% of subscribers to political e-mail lists had AOL.com addresses and 48% had Gmail accounts, the AOL users accounted for 22% of all donations during the November-December 2015 study period. In contrast, Gmail users contributed just 13% of total donation dollars. The generosity of AOL folks makes them stand out from the e-mail crowd: The average AOL user donation was $159, while Gmail users gave an average of $31. Why? Differences in average age translate into differences in average giving. AOL e-mail addresses tend to belong to older donors, and "80% of all donations from e-mail are coming from people 50 or older," explained Fluent CMO Jordan Cohen. These older AOL donors should be especially valuable to Conservative causes since the average Republican donor online is 55-plus, according to Republican digital strategy firm Harris Media. However, the rate of return on e-mail for political campaigns is high regardless of address, age or party affiliation, added Cohen, pointing out that President Obama's e-mail list in the last campaign amounted to about 40 million people, and 4.5 million of those donated, which is "a huge response rate." For more: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/02/18/political-fundraising-aol-email-donations-campaigns/80556614/

How Clinton Leads Trump in the Data Game

Targeted voter data and analytics are key to winning for political campaigns and causes today. So, who has the better data armory among the warring presidential hopefuls? Advertising Age magazine recently addressed the issue by comparing Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton and Republican primary leader Donald Trump in terms of operations, spending and expert support. Political analysts give the Democrats an edge operationally, coming out of the two data-centric Obama campaigns with a sophisticated data-gathering operation that can target voters in swing states. In terms of dollars spent, the Federal Election Commission shows the Clinton campaign pays about $10,000 a month to a top data staffer, co-founder of data firm BlueLabs, and about the same amount combined per month for two additional staffers, plus Clinton has spent around $82,000 with NGP VAN, a Democratic voter data firm, since last October. In contrast, Trump waited until January to hire two "low-profile" former Republican National Committee data strategists, per Politico reporting. But he has brought data consultants on board, too, spending $240,000 with the political data firm L2 and about $18,000 with NationBuilder, a voter file management platform. The candidates will also joust with media buys based on data analytics, and Clinton has outspent Trump for data-enhanced media agency buys so far, shelling out $9.6 million to TV firm GMMB and $745,000 to digital agency Bully Pulpit in February. Of course, spending is not the only measure of strength in the data arena. Staff expertise and experience counts, and Clinton may have the advantage there, opined political analysts. While Clinton is sure to gather former Obama data veterans and agencies if she wins nomination, Trump may struggle to attract similar data expertise from the Republican side given the #NeverTrump movement. For more: http://adage.com/article/datadriven-marketing/clinton-trump-match-data-arena/302989/

USPS Debuts Site Promoting Political Direct Mail

The U.S. Postal Service has jumped into the election frenzy with a new website, DeliverTheWin.com, to provide political campaigns with guidance on how to best use direct mail for fundraising and voter impact. The site is part of a broader effort by the USPS to raise awareness of mail during this year’s elections, along with partnerships with industry trade groups and publications. The site touts direct mail effectiveness, for example citing USPS research showing 79% of households either read or scan the advertising mail they receive. More significantly, it alerts political mailers to USPS promotions for digitally advanced mail, such as use of mobile-scanned augmented reality (AR) apps, QR codes and near field communication (NFC), as well as personalized urls (PURLs). The site also promotes use of sensory/dimensional design to win mailbox attention,  the postal savings of its Every Door Direct Mail program for geographic targeting, and its Address Quality Analysis (AQA) to improve deliverability. Check out the website at http://www.deliverthewin.com/

Sanders Is Surprise Leader in Ad Agency Spending

Presidential hopefuls are spending millions on TV ads, direct mail, digital ads, social media and data analytics. But the agency big spender may surprise you: Old Towne Media is the agency that has scored the most campaign cash--thanks to the Democrat's anti-establishment candidate Bernie Sanders. In fact, according to a mid-February analysis by Advertising Age magazine, the Sanders campaign has been more generous with agencies than his rivals, spending $10.6 million with Olde Towne Media, an agency focused on TV ads; $5.6 million with Revolution Messaging, a digital consulting and advertising agency; and $2.9 million with Tigereye Promotions for campaign paraphernalia and merchandising. Sanders' agency spending beat rival Hillary Clinton's outlay; her top three agency investments have been $8.7 million with TV-focused media agency GMMB, $1.8 million to Bully Pulpit Interactive for digital, and $1.05 million for direct marketing with Chapman Cubine Adams & Hussey. Bernie also whips GOP party outsider Ted Cruz's agency investment. Cruz sent $3.2 million to Cambridge Analytica, a data analytics and digital media firm; $2 million to Campaign Solutions, a digital agency; and $1.9 million to The Lukens Co., a direct marketing firm. Marco Rubio, the latest GOP establishment hope, has only one agency scoring over a million dollars: Smart Media Group, a media agency, scooped up $8.6 million from the Rubio campaign. However, the Ad Age story isn't including spending by PACs, target of Sanders' ire. Plus, GOP front-runner Donald Trump, who has coasted on "earned media" coverage and finally aired a TV ad in January, isn't included in the article. Still, looking at primary vote forecasts, it's a good bet many of these agencies will soon lose their political gravy train. For more on candidates' agency spending, read http://adage.com/article/campaign-trail/towne-media-topped-election-agency-spending-2015/302680/