New Media Market Maps Offer Unique Look at Voters

Successful political ad strategy needs to go deeper than red and blue states to match voter demographics and views with media markets and costs. How does that redraw the American political map? Now, as reported in a recent Washington Post article, leading Democratic media firm GMMB and Civis Analytics have crunched 2012 election data to create that kind of mapping for the first time. Their mapping shows every U.S. media market in terms of political leanings, voter demographics, upcoming 2014 races and likely ad costs, and even the percentage of uninsured, which may influence how markets line up on the health-care debate. Their maps deliver some surprise results. Looking back on the Obama-Romney presidential race reveals that President Obama’s best media market wasn’t in a liberal enclave like San Francisco but rather in tiny Laredo, TX. Obama beat Romney by 54 points along that stretch of the U.S.-Mexico border. Why? More than 90% of voters in Laredo are Hispanic, a particularly pro-Obama group. In contrast, Romney did best in north Texas, in the Abilene-Sweetwater market, where he beat Obama by 60 points. Looking to 2014, when the Affordable Care Act may be a hot issue, both parties and independent PACs will be paying attention to media markets with large portions of uninsured. Since the political map shows that more than 20% of the population remains uninsured in large swaths of the West and Southwest, along with chunks of the South, watch for ACA-related ad spends there. For a chance to look at the GMMB-Civis maps in detail for different variables, go to http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/12/03/the-2012-election-results-by-media-market/

HealthCare.gov Mess Has Lessons for Campaigns

What can the Obamacare website debacle teach a political marketer, or a brand marketer for that matter? A recent online post by David Heitman, president of a Colorado branding and PR firm, lays out some cogent lessons for campaigns and causes. The first obvious lesson, he writes, is that it's better to launch late than launch badly. The second lesson is to put a premium on critical feedback. Apparently, pre-launch issues with the HealthCare.gov website didn't get to the top, or the top didn't listen. Next, when something goes wrong, remember that the media and the voters can forgive a mistake but not a cover-up. Trying to deny or hide the truth only incites the media and sours supporters. And don't underestimate the intelligence of your audience by trying to mislead in a world of click-speed data sharing. As Heitman points out, when HHS boasted that 15 million visits showed the popularity of HealthCare.gov, Pew Research could quickly counter that 70% of those visitors had insurance and were not serious shoppers. The impact of technical errors on the Obama administration's credibility also underscores the vulnerability of candidates and campaigns to their high-tech advisors. Make sure your campaign has invested in a proven, trustworthy technical team! But perhaps the toughest political lessons are how failure in the details can undermine the larger vision, and how a launch stumble can risk the race. See the full post at http://www.bcbr.com/article/20131108/EDITION0806/131109942/-1/DigitalEdition

'Obamacare' Attacks Forecast to Pump TV Ad Dollars

Leading up to the midterm elections, TV stations are forecast to reap $500 million in political ads mainly devoted to attacks on the Affordable Care Act (ACA), or "Obamacare" as opponents dub it, reports Advertising Age. Per the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), part of Kantar Media, ACA-related ads already have put $500 million in TV station pockets from 2009 to date, and another $500 million will be spent this year and early next year. The majority of the ad spending will be aimed at attacking the ACA. The $1 billion spent on a single issue breaks all previous records, and opponents of the ACA have outspent supporters by 5 to 1 in terms of TV ads, according to CMAG. Many anti-ACA ads won't be aimed at influencing Congress but at influencing voters in next year's midterm elections, with the PACs and GOP hoping to use the issue against Democrats, especially in the Senate where the GOP wants to regain control. See the full story at http://adage.com/article/campaign-trail/health-care-fight-generate-500m-advertising/243093/

Donors Skittish As Enroll America Draws Scrutiny

The Obama administration’s efforts to raise private money to support implementation of its health care law have provoked such an uproar on Capitol Hill that potential donors are hesitant to contribute, according to a New York Times story citing people involved in the fundraising program. The partisan outcry in Congress began after it was revealed that Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius had made fundraising calls to business executives and nonprofit groups to assist Enroll American, a private nonprofit organization that will encourage millions of Americans to sign up for insurance this fall. Enroll America is led by veterans of the Obama White House and presidential campaigns. It plans to use campaign-style techniques to locate the uninsured. White House officials said that, while generally aware that Sebelius would be seeking support from outside groups, they did not sign off on the fundraising calls by Sebelius, per the New York Times story. Now two House committees have begun investigating the solicitations, and senior Republicans from the Senate and the House have asked the comptroller general of the United States to investigate the actions of Sebelius to determine if she was improperly circumventing spending limits imposed by Congress. One of the House panels, the Energy and Commerce Committee, has also asked health insurance companies to provide records of any contacts with administration officials seeking money or other assistance for President Obama’s campaign to enroll people eligible for subsidized insurance. For the New York Times story, go to http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/20/us/politics/potential-donors-to-enroll-america-grow-skittish.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0