Google Offers New Election Search Trends Hub

Whether campaigning at the national, state or county level in today's digital-first environment, political pros want to track what engaged voters care about in real time, and what better gauge than Internet activity? Enter the newly launched Google Trends Election Hub, a trove of free research. Search Engine Land recently reported on how the new Google hub site takes a deep dive into this year’s election-related search trends across the United States, with real-time reports on president and vice president candidate search queries, by state, plus search data on state and county political issues. And if you wonder how engaged the electorate is online, Google reports this year’s election-related searches are up 240% over the same period preceding 2012’s Election Day. Just some of the goodies you can cull: The hub home page has a chart graphing national search interest in each candidate over the previous week, as well as links to daily state-by-state search interests, voter registration searches, and the top election issue-related searches by state during the past week. There are also charts graphing the number of “Vote for [presidential candidate]” searches during the past week, and tracking of searches for “how to vote,” which Google reports is at its highest rate ever. At the state level, candidates and causes can drill down to the county level on issue interests; for example, while the economy is the most searched issue on average across the swing state of Florida, immigration is more searched in southern counties in that state. There's even a YouTube election map so you can see how many people are watching Trump vs. Clinton videos. Check it out at https://www.google.com/trends/story/election2016

Lessons From GOP Cantor's Stunning Primary Loss

Stunned political pundits are trying to explain the Virginia primary loss of GOP House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. Are there lessons for campaigns and causes charging toward the midterm elections? Cantor's loss certainly was not due to a lack of money; Cantor outspent his Republican primary rival Dave Brat by 26 to 1 courtesy of big-business donors. So those facing big-money challengers take heart, and candidates with overflowing coffers take heed.  Fundraising that earns a "crony capitalist" label can come back to bite you: Cantor's unabashed big-donor image allowed Brat to successfully appeal to voters' populist sentiments. A recent analysis in The Atlantic magazine sums up other Cantor vulnerabilities that candidates will want to avoid. For example, don't go wrong on litmus issues: Cantor's support of certain pieces of immigration reform allowed Tea Party-stalwart Brat to win Conservative votes by accusing Cantor of "blanket amnesty" support. Next, remember that personality counts: Cantor, who has been described as arrogant and self-serving, apparently made more enemies than friends on his ambitious climb to House Majority Leader via leaps from moderate Republican to Tea Party and back toward the middle, and so earned distrust, dislike and Conservative responses ranging from apathy to outright opposition during the primary. And never lose touch with the home front: Cantor didn't pay attention to his constituent base while he played Washington power games and wooed donors. Plus, he then sought to change state central committee rules before the primary to minimize right-wing activists, a misguided effort to "vigorously poke a nest of already-angry hornets" as one Republican operative told The Atlantic. For more, see the article at http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/06/six-theories-for-eric-cantors-loss/372552/

GOP Governors Outpace Dems in Dollars for 2014

The Republican Governors Association (RGA) is heading into the 36 governor races of 2014 with significantly more dollars than its Democratic counterpart. According to totals released in January of this year, the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) raised about $28 million in 2013 across its three committees. The RGA announced that it raised $50.3 million in 2013 through its 527 committee, and another $2.2 million through an affiliated nonprofit, per a story in Politico. That brings the RGA's total cash haul to $52.5 million in 2013, or nearly double what Democrats raised. Both organizations are permitted to take unlimited corporate and individual contributions and consist of a super PAC, a nonprofit and a 527 group, with most of the funds spent through the 527 organizations. Democratic dollars are likely to go toward defeating GOP incumbents in states that President Barack Obama carried in 2012. The Politico story reports DGA top targets include Maine Gov. Paul LePage, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett, Florida Gov. Rick Scott, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Meanwhile, the RGA will likely seek to fund victory in Illinois, Massachusetts and Arkansas, as well as uphill battles against Democratic incumbents in Colorado, Connecticut and New Hampshire, according to Politico. The RGA's bigger war chest does not necessarily ensure success, however. In the only competitive gubernatorial race of 2013 in Virginia, the RGA edged the DGA in spending, but the Democrats’ candidate Terry McAuliffe defeated the GOP's Ken Cuccinelli. For the story, go to http://www.politico.com/story/2014/01/rga-dga-fundraising-2013-102883.html

ABC News Cites 14 Midterm Races That Matter

The political pundits are already deciding which of the races for 435 House slots, 36 Senate seats, and 36 governor's mansions are worthy of national media attention. ABC News Political Director Rick Klein has weighed in early with the top 14 races he thinks are worth following so far. Here are just the top six races chosen: Kentucky's Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell battling both a tea-party challenger and re-energized Democratic foes; Arkansas' incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor defending a vulnerable position against well-heeled GOP opponent Rep. Tom Cotton; Georgia's retiring Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss leaving the field open to far-right primary contenders and hopeful Democrat Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn; incumbent Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu fighting to keep her Southern seat as a must-win for Democrats; Florida Gov. Rick Scott, a tea-party power, facing the evolving Republican-turned-Independent-turned Democrat Charlie Crist; Texas Gov. Rick Perry retiring in the biggest red state to leave the gubernatorial contest open for new Democratic star Wendy Davis vs. Republican Atty. Gen. Greg Abbott. For more detail on these and other races, including the Wisconsin governor race and House matches in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, California, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, see the article at http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-news-14-14-2014-midterm-election-races/story?id=21659968

Oregon in the Spotlight With Hot Ballot Measures

Oregon is in the national spotlight with a bevy of political hot buttons vying for attention on its 2014 ballot, including legal weed, gay marriage, immigration, and labeling of genetically modified foods, just for starters. Although Oregonians have until July to collect signatures for initiatives in the 2014 election, several high-profile measures have already made the ballot. For example, an immigration-related measure will be there, seeking a public vote on a law, passed in the last session of the state legislature, to give "driver privilege cards" to those who don’t have the documents required to get a driver’s license. The driver’s card would be restricted from use for identification or voting. Gay marriage is on the ballot, too, as Oregon joins at least eight other states with 2014 gay marriage initiatives. The Oregon measure would repeal a state constitutional amendment, passed in 2004, which banned same-sex marriage. The initiative, called the Oregon Freedom to Marry and Religious Protection Initiative, would also protect religious institutions from being forced to perform same-sex weddings. Meanwhile, proponents of legal recreational marijuana are busy collecting signatures to make sure, although they hope the Oregon Legislature will send a legal weed measure to the ballot, that their issue goes before the voters in 2014. If legal weed proponents prevail, Oregon would follow the lead of Washington and Colorado, the first two states to legalize the drug for recreational purposes. Other measures seeking a spot on the ballot include required labeling of "genetically modified foods," a "right-to-work" push to allow public workers to opt out of unions and dues, and an end to state-controlled liquor sales. For more detail, go to http://watchdog.org/121127/oregon-2014-ballot/

Hot 2014 Races to Fuel TV Ad Spending

If you're campaigning in states like Michigan and Arkansas next year, get ready to compete for attention with big TV political ad spends, per analysis by TVB, the local broadcaster trade association. Overall, political ad spending on local TV is projected to be $2.4 billion next year, according Kantar's Campaign Media Analysis Group, which is an increase of more than 4% from the $2.3 billion mid-term elections of 2010, the first election to see the effect of unlimited outside group spending enabled by the Supreme Court's "Citizens United" decision. Arkansas and Michigan are forecast to draw the hottest spate of political ad activity in the 2014 mid-term elections because of competitive House, Senate and governor races. Other states that will see heavy TV advertising include West Virginia, Georgia and Iowa--where there are open Senate seats--and Alaska and Kentucky, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich and Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are being targeted by Senate campaign groups. Two wild cards may impact TV ad budgets, however: the influx of money from independent groups and "big data" analytics, which could temper TV mass-audience buys in favor of micro-targeting specific groups. For TVB's state-by-state political ad market projections, see the USA Today article at http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/11/13/2014-political-ads-michigan-arkansas/3498023/

California Campaigns Must Report Paid Social Posts

California's Fair Political Practices Commission, the state's campaign watchdog agency, has ruled that political campaigns must report when they pay people to post favorable or unfavorable content on blogs, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and other social media sites. The commission said it acted out of concern that the public might be deceived into thinking paid content on blogs is objective political commentary. A Los Angeles Times news story quotes Commission Chairwoman Ann Ravel: "The public is entitled to know who is paying for campaigns and campaign opinions, so the weight to be given to the views can be evaluated by voters." The new rules require disclosure by campaigns that pay someone $500 or more to post favorable or unfavorable content on Internet sites not run by the campaigns. The campaign’s periodic finance report would have to identify who is paid, how much is paid, and to which website or URL the posting was made. That reporting is not required if the blog or website itself identifies the content as paid for by a campaign. The new rules, which follow the lead of Maine, are unpopular with some in the "blogosphere" but were endorsed by open-government groups, including Consumer Watchdog, as a way to bring “sunshine” to a growing field of political communications. See the L.A. Times story at http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-state-adopts-new-rule-campaigns-must-say-when-they-pay-for-web-posts-20130919,0,1576392.story

2013 Has Unusually Low Number of Ballot Measures

Just 26 ballot questions were certified for a spot on five statewide ballots as of Sept. 5. It's an unusually low number given that, going back to 1989, the average tally of ballot measures in an odd-numbered year is 43. Indeed, 2013 has the lowest ballot initiative total in the last two dozen years. The states with ballot initiatives in 2013 are Colorado, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Texas and Washington. All of the signature petition deadlines have passed, so no new initiatives can appear on ballots. The targets of the measures include business regulation, health care, minimum wage, and taxes, including Colorado proposals for a 15% excise tax and a 10% sales tax on marijuana sales in the state. For more detail by state, see http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/2013_ballot_measures