Hot 2014 Races to Fuel TV Ad Spending

If you're campaigning in states like Michigan and Arkansas next year, get ready to compete for attention with big TV political ad spends, per analysis by TVB, the local broadcaster trade association. Overall, political ad spending on local TV is projected to be $2.4 billion next year, according Kantar's Campaign Media Analysis Group, which is an increase of more than 4% from the $2.3 billion mid-term elections of 2010, the first election to see the effect of unlimited outside group spending enabled by the Supreme Court's "Citizens United" decision. Arkansas and Michigan are forecast to draw the hottest spate of political ad activity in the 2014 mid-term elections because of competitive House, Senate and governor races. Other states that will see heavy TV advertising include West Virginia, Georgia and Iowa--where there are open Senate seats--and Alaska and Kentucky, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich and Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are being targeted by Senate campaign groups. Two wild cards may impact TV ad budgets, however: the influx of money from independent groups and "big data" analytics, which could temper TV mass-audience buys in favor of micro-targeting specific groups. For TVB's state-by-state political ad market projections, see the USA Today article at http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/11/13/2014-political-ads-michigan-arkansas/3498023/